The 2022 Midterm Elections and 缅北禁地 13
Election Day is fast approach. In fact,聽.聽This year, many members of the UIS community, those who are registered to vote in 缅北禁地鈥檚 13th聽congressional district, will have the relatively unique opportunity of electing a new representative to the U.S. House of Representatives.聽Most of us were previously represented by either Rodney Davis (IL 13) or Darin LaHood (IL 18), but after the 2020 Census and corresponding congressional redistricting process, 缅北禁地鈥檚 13th聽congressional district was left without an incumbent. Now, two new candidates, Democrat聽聽and Republican聽, are running to represent 缅北禁地 13.
On her website, highlights her previous service as a senior advisor to 缅北禁地 Governor J.B. Pritzker and as Chief of Staff for the White House Office of Management and Budget under President Biden. She was born in Peoria, 缅北禁地 and attended the University of 缅北禁地 Champaign. Budzinski defeated David Palmer by a margin of 75.6% to 24.4% in the Democratic primary to become the Democratic nominee.
highlights her previous experience as an educator, a small business owner, and an active philanthropist. She is from Decatur, 缅北禁地 and received a B.S. in Biology from Duke University and a M.Ed. from DePaul University. Deering faced a tougher path to the Republican nomination. She won 34.6% of the vote in the Republican primary and defeated three other candidates, Jesse Reising (33%), Matt Hausman (23.9%), and Terry Martin (8.9%).
Incumbents to the U.S. House of Representatives typically win reelection at very high rates. According to , in 2018, about 91% of U.S. House incumbents who ran for reelection won and in 2020, about 95% of U.S. House incumbents who sought reelection won. However, the lack of an incumbent is only one factor that makes the race to represent 缅北禁地 13 one of the more competitive U.S. House elections in 缅北禁地. Following the 2020 Census, the Democratic Party had control over the redistricting process in 缅北禁地. As a result, 缅北禁地鈥檚 13th congressional district, which almost runs the width of the entire state and includes both the St. Louis suburbs and Champaign, was drawn to give the Democratic Party an upper hand in the district. One estimate reported by election analyst Nathan Gonzalez at suggests President Biden would have won the district with about 54% of the vote in 2020.
However, even though the boundaries of the 13th congressional district likely give the Democratic Party a slight advantage in this particularly race, at least if voting trends remain relatively stable to those of the past few election cycles, . In 2018, the Republican Party lost 40 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and control of the chamber. Similarly, in 2010, which were the first midterms President Obama faced while in office, the Democratic Party lost 63 seats and control of the U.S. House of Representatives. While there is disagreement among political scientists as to the exact causes of this trend, only twice since WWII has the president鈥檚 political party gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives during a midterm election cycle. Based on the history of midterm losses for an incumbent president鈥檚 political party and current high rates of inflation, many election analysts predict the Republican Party will win control of the House of Representatives in 2022. Additionally, if 2022 is a strong year for the Republican Party, that reinforces the likelihood that the election to represent 缅北禁地鈥檚 13th congressional district will be particularly competitive.
Despite initially looking like a challenging election cycle for Democratic candidates, the to overturn the federal precedent protecting abortion rights has changed the way many analysts and politicians are viewing the 2022 midterms. Since this ruling, many states have enacted strict abortion bans, while other states have responded by trying to further protect abortion rights. While the public鈥檚 views on abortion are polarizing in general, public opinion of the Supreme Court鈥檚 Dobbs decision appears to be negative. One conducted in late June and early July, found 57% of respondents disapproved of the Supreme Court鈥檚 decision and the number of Democrats who strongly disagreed with the decision outnumbered the number of Republicans who strongly supported the decision. In light of these recent events, one of the Democratic Party鈥檚 electoral strategies has been to try to reframe the 2022 midterms elections from being about the economy to being about abortion access. Both and websites, as well as , reveals abortion rights are one of several policy areas that differentiate the candidates running to represent 缅北禁地 13.
Overall, elections are about who voters want to shape public policy and our current political and economic climate present high stakes for the 2022 midterm elections. Moreover, the circumstances surrounding 缅北禁地鈥檚 new 13th聽congressional district suggests we should expect a close race between Budzinski and Deering.聽
If you are interested in learning more about Budzinksi and Deering and their views on the important policy issues at stake in 2022,聽聽will be hosting a debate between the candidates on October 6th.
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References:
鈥淎产辞耻迟.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;Regan Deering for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
Cortes, Lexi. 2022. 鈥淲hat Action Would Candidates for 缅北禁地 13th Congressional District Take on Abortion?鈥� STLPR. (September 28, 2022).
鈥淓lection 2022.鈥� 缅北禁地 Public Media. (September 28, 2022).
鈥淓lections | Vote Absentee | Sangamon County.鈥� (September 28, 2022).
Gonzales, Nathan L. 2022. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 a Dummymander? 缅北禁地 May Tell Us.鈥� Roll Call. (September 28, 2022).
鈥泪蝉蝉耻别蝉.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;Nikki for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
鈥泪蝉蝉耻别蝉.鈥�&苍产蝉辫;Regan Deering for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
McCammon, Sarah. 2022. 鈥淭wo Months after the Dobbs Ruling, New Abortion Bans Are Taking Hold.鈥� NPR. (September 28, 2022).
鈥淢eet Nikki.鈥� Nikki for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
Nikki for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
PEW Research. 2022. 鈥淢ajority of Public Disapproves of Supreme Court鈥檚 Decision To Overturn Roe v. Wade.鈥� Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy. (September 28, 2022).
Prokop, Andrew. 2022. 鈥淭he Presidential Penalty.鈥� Vox. (June 13, 2022).
鈥淩eelection Rates Over the Years.鈥� OpenSecrets. (September 28, 2022).
Regan Deering for Congress. (September 28, 2022).
Dr. Matthew Geras, Assistant Professor in the UIS School of Politics & International Affairs, holds a Ph.D in Political Science from the University of Oklahoma, where he spent five years as a graduate fellow at the Carl Albert Congressional Research and Studies Center. Dr Geras鈥檚 research interests include candidates and competition in congressional elections, political institutions, specifically Congress and political parties, and representation. His research has been published in Party Politics, State Politics and Policy Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, Social Science Quarterly, and Congress and the Presidency. At UIS, Dr Geras teaches both undergraduate and graduate courses on American politics and research methods.